This Month's Synopsis: 

EQUITY MARKET CONCLUSION:

Stocks: Stay Long; Go Long; Add to your positions

1) The RITE Index is remarkably high. This indicates lots of strong bull market forces present.


The following is this month's Report:

The RITE REPORT

The following RITE Report generates indices from the monthly compilation of business, economic, & political news snippets from the Wall Street Journal, IBD, U.S. Government, et al.

RITE Report
Chris Angle, Editor
222 Boston Post Road, #244
Waterford, CT 06385
Tel. 203/253-2008
Email: chrisangle1@gmail.com
http://www.stock-market-direction.net/

CUSTOM RESEARCH:
Please note that custom economic and/or macro investment research and wealth advisory services are available on request.

CONTENTS

PART 1 - STOCKS

1) Macro-Economic Snippets w/Index
2) Indicators for Technical Analysis
3) Overall Investment Strategy Index
4) Summary

PART 2 - HEDGING
1) Hedging and Inflation Snippets
2) Hedging Summary

PART 1 - STOCKS

1) Macro-Economic Snippets

A) Negative Economic and General Business Data Snippets

​03/15
-IBD: Small business optimism dipped in February, but from a 12-year high, the National Federation of Independent Business reported. Its index fell 0.6 point to 105.3.
03/22
-IBD: Existing-home sales fell 3.7% to an annual rate of 5.48 million, the National Association of Realtors said, worse than expected.
-IBD: A separate FHFA home price gauge showed existing-home values were flat in January vs. December, the weakest since November 2013 and far below views. The 5.7% annual gain was the smallest in 2-1/2 years.
03/27
-The CPB World Trade Monitor shows that in January the volume of world trade was unchanged from December, having increased 0.9% in December (initial estimate: 0.5%).
03/30
-FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) series has been updated. Velocity of M2 Money Stock: The most recent observation is 1.437 for Q4 2016. (Down from 1.442)

Total of Negative General Business and Economic News Snippets: 5

B) Positive Economic and General Business News Snippets

​03/01
-IBD: Fed Says U.S. Growth Modest, Inflation Subdued Even As Rate Hike Odds Soar
-IBD: The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey index out Wednesday rose to 57.7 in February as factory activity accelerated for the sixth straight month. That's the best reading since August 2014, giving the Federal Reserve more reasons to raise rates this month.
03/07
-IBD: The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined 1.1 points, or 2.0%, to 55.3, off from a more than 10-year high of 56.4 in February. March's reading marks the fourth since Donald Trump's electoral victory in November. But the poll included the period both before and after President Trump's well-received speech to Congress on Feb. 28, with those who were polled after the speech generally being more favorable to the new president than those questioned before the speech. The index is 4.6 points above its 12-month average of 50.7.
03/08
-BLS: Productivity increased 1.3 percent in the nonfarm business sector in the fourth quarter of 2016; unit labor costs increased 1.7 percent (seasonally adjusted annual rates). In manufacturing, productivity increased 2.0 percent and unit labor costs increased 2.4 percent. 
-IBD: Private employers added a net 298,000 jobs in February, according to the ADP Employment Report, the best gain since April 2014 and much better than expectations for 183,000. January's private payroll gain was revised up by 15,000 to 261,000.
03/10
-BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 235,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent. Employment gains occurred in construction, private educational services, manufacturing, health care, and mining. 
03/15
-IDB: Retail sales rose 0.1% in February, the Commerce Department said Wednesday morning, as expected
-IDB: Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index shot up 19.1 points in the first quarter to 93.3, the highest since Q2 2014. It was the biggest quarterly jump since the end of 2009, when corporate America was just emerging from the Great Recession.
-IDB: Job Openings At Small Firms Hit Highest Since December 2000
-ESA: U.S. Census Bureau releases new data on building permits in February 2017 showing seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1,213,000, down 6.2 percent from the revised January rate, but up 4.4 percent from February 2016.
Housing starts in February 2017 were at a SAAR of 1,288,000, up 3.0 percent from January 2016, and up 6.2 percent from February 2016.
-WSJ: U.S. Housing Starts Rose, Permits Fell in February - Market for new single-family housing has firmed as apartment construction has weakened
-WSJ: U.S. Jobless Claims Fell Last Week to 241,000 - Claims have remained below 300,000 for longest such streak since 1970
03/22
-IBD: Existing-home prices rose 7.7% vs. a year earlier to $228,400.
-IBD: The supply of existing homes on the market fell 6.4% vs. a year earlier, the 21st straight month of declining inventories.
03/24
-CPB: The Dutch economy is showing a robust level of growth. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis calculated a growth of 2.1% for this year and 1.8% for 2018. Both years are expected to show a budget surplus and unemployment will continue to decrease. At the same time, increasing inflation will have a dampening impact on purchasing power. The economic prospects are also favourable for the medium term (20182021). Over this period, the economy will grow an average 1.7%, per year, and government finances are in order. This is concluded in the Central Economic Plan (CEP) 2017, published today.
03/29
-IBD: The Pending Home Sales Index jumped 5.5% in February, its best reading since last April and the second-best reading since May 2006, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.
03/30
-ESA: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to today’s third estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent.
-BEA: Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital consumption adjustment) increased $11.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016, compared with an increase of $117.8 billion in the third quarter.
-Fed Reserve St. Louis: Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) - Q4 2016: 1,741.2 (Billions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)
03/31
-WSJ: U.S. Consumer Sentiment Remained High in March - Sentiment was boosted by higher incomes, favorable job prospects, University of Michigan says
-WSJ: U.S. Corporate Profits Rose Again in Fourth Quarter - U.S. economic growth revised up from earlier estimates to 2.1%: U.S. corporate profits extended their rebound in late 2016 as the broader economy remained on a trajectory of steady, modest growth. A measure of after-tax corporate profits jumped 22.3% in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The measure’s strongest year-over-year gain in nearly five years partly reflected a low base in the final months of 2015, when earnings plunged amid a slump in energy prices, weakness in the manufacturing sector and BP PLC’s massive settlement with the U.S. government over the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
03/31
-ESA: Personal income in February 2017 increased 0.4 percent. Nominal personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.1 percent and real PCE decreased 0.1 percent. Nominal disposable income (DPI) rose 0.3 percent and real DPI increased 0.2 percent. The personal saving rate as a percentage of DPI was 5.6 percent in February.

Total of Positive General Business and Economic News Snippets: 22

Table of Positive v. Negative General Economic & Business News

Month % Neg % Pos

2015
Jan         38%     62%  
Feb         38%     62%  
March     50%     50%  
April     30%     70%  
May     36%     64%  
June     47%     53%  
July     37%     63%  
August 24%     76%  
Sept     49%     51%  
Oct     36%         64%  
Nov     43%     57%  
Dec     27%     73%  
2016
Jan     40%     60%  
Feb     41%     59%  
March     47%     53%  
April         49%     51%  
May     42%     58%  
June     38%     62%  
July     54%     46%  
Aug     31%     69%  
Sept     38%     62%
Oct     32%     68%
Nov     14%     86%
Dec.     32%     68%
2017
Jan     34%     66%
Feb     04%     96%

3) Economic Analysis/Indicator Summary

Indicator TREND/COMMENT

(DAILY) - HIGH YIELD BONDS (HYG)  
Downticked (02/28 - 87.90; 04/04 - 87.39) Negative 

(DAILY) - iSHARES SELECT DIVIDEND (DVY)  
(02/28 - 92.29; 04/04 - 90.81) Downtick Negative

04/03 - PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 57.7 to 57.2: Growth rate decreased but Orders Expanding: Positive

04/03 - CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Census Bureau) Up + 0.8% month to month - Positive; Year over year + 3.0% Positive; Combined - Positive

04/04 - MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, & ORDERS (Census Bureau): + 1.0%: Positive

03/02 - (BLS) UNEMPLOYMENT Overall: Positive

03/10 - Unemployment Rate (BLS): Downtick to 4.7%: (Positive)
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (BLS): 62.9% - 63.0% (Positive)
Employment-Population Ratio (BLS): Uptick 59.9% - 60.0% (Positive)
03/13 - Employment Trends Index (The Conference Board TM) Increased Slightly (Positive)  

03/20 - QUARTERLY FINANCIAL REPORT - MFG, MINING, WHOLESALE, SERVICE (Census Bureau) - Manufacturing corporations' seasonally adjusted after-tax profits were $144.1 billion for the fourth quarter of 2016, down $6.6 (+/- 1.2) billion from third quarter of 2016. Negative

03/15 - RETAIL SALES (Dept of Commerce) +0.1% from previous month - Pos. & 5.7 percent (±0.9 percent) above February 2016

03/15 - MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES (Census Bureau): + 0.3%: Positive 

03/31 - INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX (INDPRO) - Positive
  Uptick: 103.6210 - 103.7332 - Positive
(Year over Year 103.2685 - 103.7332 Positive
(5 yr. Overall - Negative)

03/16 - HOUSING STARTS (Dept of Commerce): Positive
(month over month) + 3.0% Positive
(yr over yr) + 6.2% Positive

03/17 - CONFERENCE BOARD
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS ™ Increased: Positive

03/17 - CONFERENCE BOARD
COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS ™ Increased: Positive

03/23 - NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES (Census Bureau) + 6.1% Positive
(Overall in uptrend)

03/22 - EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR) - 3.7%: Negative
(Overall in uptrend: + 3.8% yr over yr)

03/30 - REAL GDP (BEA) + 2.1%: Positive
BEA: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 3.5 percent.

03/31 - PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (Dept of Commerce - BEA) + 0.1%: Positive

03/31 - PERSONAL INCOME (Dept of Commerce - BEA) + 0.4%: Positive

03/28 - CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
(Conference BoardTM) Uptick: Positive

03/31 - RESTAURANT PERFORMANCE INDEX: 100.7 - Expanding: Positive


SUMMARY
 Positive     16
 Negative     4
 Neutral       0

4) RITE Investment Strategy Index

Scale:
0 = Neutral;
+10 = High Opportunity Environment;
-10 = Extreme Negative Risk Miasma

EFFORT, RISK, FREEDOM, 
KNOWLEDGE/INFO                                     COMMENTS

1) Domestic Political Risk + 8 Excellent: New adm proposals look good.

2) Tax Risk                        + 6 Taxes to go down but when is not clear

3) Individual Incentive (Freedom) + 8 Regulations are to decrease in 2017

4) Production of Knowledge          + 8 Economy positive; Corp. profits turning up

5) Technical Analysis                     + 8 Market: Bullish
of the U.S. Stock Markets

6) General Business
& Economic Snippets                     + 8 Positive Snippets 81%

7) Economic Indicators                  + 8 Positive Increase:

16 Pos; 4 Neg; 0 Neu

Sum of Total  + 54
Average of Total   + 7.4
RITE Strategy Index: 89%

History of Strategy Index (Started 2009) Statistics noted below are approximate.

Month/Yr Index % DJIA         Gold         Oil     USD Index

2015
Jan 31     65.6%     17,164.95 1,283.0     47.85     95.05
Feb 28     66.1% 18,132.70     1,213.6     49.52     95.295
Mar 31       63.3% 17,776.12     1,186.5     47.30     98.395
May 1     67.2% 18,024.06     1,177.4     59.26     95.385
May 29       66.7% 18,010.68       1,190.5     60.23     96.915
June 30     66.1% 17,619.51     1,173.7     58.80     95.745
July 31     70.6% 17,689.86     1,095.0     46.77     97.340
August 31 66.7% 16,528.03     1,132.5     49.20     95.58
Sept 30     64.4% 16,284.70     1,114.5     45.09     96.48
Nov 09     63.9% 17,730.28     1,090.9     44.02     99.02
Dec 31     63.9% 17,425.03     1,060.5       37.07     98.683
2016
Jan 29     56.1% 16,466.30     1,118.6         33.11     99.55 USD Index 91.58 WSJ Index
Feb 29     56.1% 16,516.50     1,244.7         33.74    89.88 WSJ Index
Mar 31     55.6% 17,685.09     1,233.1     37.79         86.58 WSJ Index
April 30     53.3% 17,773.64     1,294.9     45.99         84.98 WSJ Index
May 31       57.2% 17,787.20     1,220.4     48.82     87.50
July 1       57.8%     17,929.99     1,344.9     49.28       86.58
July 29     55.5% 18,432.24     1,357.9     41.38     86.50
Sept 02     58.9% 18,491.96     1,328.8     44.20     86.84
Sept. 30     57.9% 18,308.15     1,318.8     48.05     86.37
Nov 2     60.7% 17,959.64         1,305.7     45.81     87.70
Dec 1     77.1% 19,191.93         1,176.3       50.64     91.50
2017
Jan 2     77.1%     19,762.60       1,152.0     53.89     92.94
Feb 9     87.8%     20,172.40     1,232.9     53.03     90.94
Mar 1       90.0%     21,142.85     1,243.0     53.93    91.41
​April 4     88.5%       20,689.24     1,257.2       51.32     90.29

5) Summary

EQUITY MARKET CONCLUSION:

Stocks: Stay Long; Go Long; Add to your positions

1) The RITE Index is remarkably high. This indicates lots of strong bull market forces present.

PART 2: HEDGING

1) HEDGING/INFLATION SNIPPETS FROM THE WSJ

Deflationary Snippets

None this month

Inflationary Snippets

03/01
IBD: The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of consumer prices climbed 0.4% from December and 1.9% from a year earlier, within a shade of its 2% target that was last met in April 2012. The core price measure, which excludes food and fuel, rose 0.3 percent from the prior month and was up 1.7% from January 2016. 


DEFLATION SNIPPETS 0/0%

INFLATION SNIPPETS 1/100%

INFLATION TABLE

(RITE Report Issue Date is the first of the month; Statistical Data is the latest closing price which is noted in the WSJ on the close of the last day of the month, but the RITE Report does not represent that these data are accurate.)

Month     Inflationdata.com     CRB
  Annual Inflation Rate

2016  
Sept 02     0.84%                 179.99
Sept 30     1.06%                 186.32
Nov 02     1.46%                 184.29
Dec 01     1.64%                 191.41
Dec 31     1.69%                 192.512

2016 Average 1.26%

2017
Feb 09     2.07%                   192.756
Mar 01     2.50%                 190.81
April 04     2.74%                 185.59

2) HEDGING SUMMARY

Inflation remains subdued although the CRB has moved up, but now levelled off.

Gold: No call

Oil: No call. 

The U.S. Dollar: Stay Long (Economy to go up)

For your reference we include a directory of:

The RITE Report Major Trade Advice Summary

Date             Approx.
                      Mrkt Level     Market     Advice
2009
2009/05/01     8,212             Stocks     Go long.
2009/05/01     895                 Gold         Go long.
2009/05/01                             USD         Go short
2009/06/01     51.12             Oil             Go long
2010
2010/02/01                         USD             Stop going short;
                                                                Take profits. get out.  
2011
2011/04/01     12,376         Stocks         Market to go sideways;
                                                              end of bull.  
2011/05/01     12,763         Stocks         Take profits 55.4% Gain
2011/06/01     102.7             Oil             Go Neutral 100.9% Gain  
2011/06/01     12,441         Stocks         Take profits (re-confirmation)
2011/07/01                         USD             Go short
2011/08/01                         USD             Cover the short; no direction
2011/08/01     12,240         Stocks             Trading Range
2012
2012/03/01     107             Oil                 Go long
2012/05/01     104             Oil                 Go neutral 2.8% Loss
2012/06/01     12,772         Stocks           Take profits; a downtrend started
2012/06/01     1,564         Gold                 Sell: Take profits 74.7% Gain
2012/07/01     1,604         Gold                 Buy: Go long
2012/08/01     13,090         Stocks             Advised not to be in the Stock Market at all
2012/09/01     80.025         USD             Go short
2012/11/01     13,096         Stocks           Confirmation: Not to be in Stock Market
2013
2013/01/02     13,104.30     Stocks         Go Long
2013/03/01     82.47             USD             Index Take loss; go neutral
2013/05/31     15,115.57     Stocks         Take profits 15.3% Profit
2013/08/01     15,499.54     Stocks         Go Long
2013/12/01     92.78             Oil             Go Short
2014
2014/01/02     98.70             Oil             Take off short: Go Neutral 6.38% Loss
2014/02/28     16,321.71     Stocks         Take profit; go to cash 5.0% Increase
2014/03/01     16,532.61     Stocks         Go long (Unrealized gain potential)
2014/10/31     1,173.5         Gold             Sell (1,604 to 1,173.5 loss of 430.5) 36.8% loss
2015/01/30     1,283.0         Gold             Go long
2016/04/04     35.32             Oil             Go long
2016/07/01     49.05             Oil             Take Profit - 38% Gain
2016/12/02     1,176.3         Gold             Sell - Loss 8.3%
2016/12/02.     91.50         WSJ Dollar Index     Go Long  

PRESENTLY

​2017/04/04
Stocks (DJIA)     20,689.24     Stay Long (Unrealized gain potential)
Gold                     1,257.2         No call
US Dollar                90.29         Stay Long (Unrealized loss potential)
Oil                            51.32         Neutral; No Call

CUSTOM RESEARCH:
Please note that custom economic and/or macro investment research and advisory services are available on request.

Caveats
1) Past performance is not indicative of future results.
2) Trading stocks, futures, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

RITE Report
222 Boston Post Rd., #244
Waterford, CT 06385
Tel. 203/253-2008
Email: chrisangle1@gmail.com
http://www.stock-market-direction.net/

(The RITE Report’s name was derived from the acronym of the four variables inherent in all economic transactions; Risk, Information/Knowledge, Time, and Effort. Of course, this would be for a service, and if the product were a material good, there would be an additional factor of Material - or Land as the economist would say. See The Philosophical Equations of Economics at www.philosophypublishing.com for further info on this subject.)

FOR YOUR REFERENCE

1) Chris Angle is the author of:

The Nature of Aesthetics - 978-0-9661126-4-1
Defining Ethics Good & Evil - 978-0-9661126-5-8
Truth and the Nature of Decisions - 978-0-9661126-6-5
The Philosophical Equations of Economics - 978-0-9661126-3-4
These books may be viewed at: www.philosophypublishing.com

2) Chris Angle is the host of The Philosophical Angle, a TV and Podcast Program, which discusses concepts in current media.
http://www.youtube.com/user/philosophypublishing

DISCLAIMERS/CAVEATS:

1) Past performance is not indicative of future results.
2) Trading stocks, futures, and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Carefully consider the suitability based upon your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. Alternative investment products, including hedge funds and managed futures, involve a high degree of risk. Alternative investment performance can be volatile and are not suitable for all investors. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment.
3) This communication does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any products named herein, commodities interests, futures contracts, or securities, and is intended for informational purposes only. Any offer for any investment product will be made solely by the appropriate disclosure document or private placement memorandum.
4) The RITE Report has been prepared either from publicly available information or reflects the opinions of the author. Information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but may not have been independently verified. The RITE Report does not guarantee, represent or warrant, or accept any responsibility or liability as to, the accuracy, completeness or appropriateness of the information contained herein. At no time will the RITE Report make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Information contained herein may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Opinions reflected in the materials are subject to change without notice. Forecasts represent estimates. Information provided by the RITE Report is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. Long-term success, trading or investing in the markets, demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any forecasting effort. Investing carries risk of losses. Information provided by the RITE Report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for tax, legal, or investment advice. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks before making any trading and
investing decisions.
5) Commodity Futures Trading Commission: Futures, Options and foreign currency trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.







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